China Set to Become the Largest Exporter

The WTO chief economist Patrick Low stated the European economy’s poor performance would make Germany lose its largest exporter tag to China soon. He made such a remark while he was speaking at a two-day gathering of trade ministers from APEC economies in Singapore.

According to the global trade organization’s figures, German merchandise exports stood at about $1.465 trillion last year whereas China followed closely behind with a total of $1.428 trillion. It should be recalled the OECD in its first Economic Survey of China in 2005 forecasted that China would overtake the US and Germany to become the largest exporter in the world in 2010.

Pascal Lamy, Director-General of WTO at the same trade ministers' meeting admitted that though there was slide in global trade but it was found that the rate of decline was easing. He pointed out the WTO data showed that Asian countries were leading a recovery in the global trade. The organization had predicted earlier that global trade would plunge by 10 percent this year, the largest decline in six decades.

It should be noted trade analysts have predicted that China and India would become the parking lot of foreign investments as those economies would be the first to drive the recovery. The early recovery of these economies notably China’s, with its production capabilities is thus expected to push its exports significantly.

The UNCTAD survey among 241 major MNCs suggested that rich countries in North America and Western Europe, which continue to attract the bulk of FDI, have been hardest hit by the fall in investment; developing economies especially in Asia are an increasingly attractive destination. The survey observed that China which bounced back in the second quarter with nearly 8 percent growth would be the topmost destination for FDIs, followed by the US and the remaining three BRIC countries (India, Brazil, and Russia).

By Jose Roy